Global oilseed market outlook for the week: soybeans fell in the first half of the year, and still face headwinds in the second half

Gold Ten Futures July 1 news, as of June 28, 2024, the week of global oilseed prices ended the last week of the first half of the market with each other rising and falling. Among them, Chicago soybean futures are hovering at the lowest level in nearly four years, as US soybean inventories are higher than expected, offsetting the bullish support of unexpected downgrades in soybean planting area. Although the US soybean rating has been downgraded continuously recently, it is still the best level in four years, and the market is obviously reluctant to add risk premiums at this time. With South American soybean supplies currently being harvested at a record high, and US soybean exports facing intense competition, unless the upcoming La Niña phenomenon brings unexpected damage to the US soybean crop, soybean prices will continue to face selling pressure from speculative funds. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the world is likely to see La Niña weather in the third quarter of this year, which could disrupt key agricultural production. La Niña usually results in drier conditions in the US, with rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina typically about 30 per cent below normal. The US election adds to trade uncertainty and the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate cut remains uncertain, adding uncertainty to the oilseed market.