UBS: The Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates in September

Economists at UBS believe that US economic data will continue to weaken in the coming months, stressing that the end of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle is more important than the beginning. UBS economists on Monday reiterated their outlook for a soft landing for the US economy, predicting that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in September and arguing that the market may have misjudged the extent of future Fed rate cuts.
"Overall, we think the market is underestimating the number of rate cuts the Fed is likely to make over the course of this cycle," UBS concluded. The Fed left policy rates unchanged at its June meeting and the median forecast of the updated dot plot shows that the Fed will cut rates only once before the end of the year, by 25 basis points, down from three in March, leading some to worry that the Fed may keep rates on hold until December.