The demand for emerging industries is growing rapidly, and the copper price center is moving up

Jinshi Futures, June 19, from the perspective of industry profit distribution, the profits of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 56.6% year-on-year from January to April, and the downstream metal products industry increased by 4.6% year-on-year. At present, the profit level of the upstream end has reached a high level. Under the background of no major improvement in the macro level, we believe that the probability of the upstream end profit remaining high is small, and the probability will be corrected by the price decline. Due to the rapid growth of demand in emerging industries, the copper price center has moved up. Among them, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in May 2022 triggered the copper price to fall from 71,000 yuan/ton to 53,000 yuan/ton. Demand resilience has formed a strong support for the copper price, corresponding to 65,000 yuan/ton in the copper price center in 2022 and 67,000 yuan/ton in the copper price center in 2023. Therefore, in the context of incremental demand on the industrial side, the downward space for copper prices in this round is limited. Overall, we believe that the current macro side does not support the continued rise of the non-ferrous sector, and the incremental demand on the industrial side may limit the downward space for non-ferrous metals. The probability of shock operation in June-July is relatively high.