Climate scientists and official agencies have warned that a strengthening El Niño, combined with human-caused warming, is triggering extreme weather in multiple regions, according to Jiemian News. Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather said the current El Niño may become the strongest in 150 years, while the article said global average temperature in 2027 could rise 1.7 C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the 1.5 C threshold under the Paris Agreement.
The World Meteorological Organization said in a report earlier this month that multi-model forecasts show sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will rise significantly, with El Niño expected to keep intensifying in the Northern Hemisphere autumn. Peru has declared a 60-day state of emergency in several areas as heavy rain raises flood and landslide risks.
China's National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center said earlier this month that China is likely to see an exceptionally strong El Niño event this autumn and winter, potentially exceeding historical extremes. It also said there is a high probability that 2026 will become the hottest year on record. The center said China's near-shore monthly average sea-surface temperature from January to May was 0.52 C above the 1991-2020 average, threatening marine ecosystems and aquaculture safety, while most of China has seen temperatures 0.5 C to 1 C above normal since early July.
The article said El Niño can strengthen typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea, worsen winter temperature swings, and raise the risk of severe flooding. It also cited a calculation by China's National Energy Administration that every 1 C rise in China's average temperature could increase electricity demand by 40 million to 50 million kilowatts. In public health, it said El Niño can increase the spread of infectious diseases, and a French public health report on July 22 said the June 17-July 2 heatwave caused at least 5,764 excess deaths, 36% above normal expectations.
El Niño Could Drive 2027 Global Temperatures 1.7 C Above Pre-Industrial Levels
2026-07-28 03:23:34
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