Kalshi Trader Says Spotify Market Was Settled Before Streaming Data Review

Kalshi trader Caleb Davies said he asked Kalshi to delay settlement of a Spotify prediction market so its enforcement team could review suspected artificial streaming activity. According to Odaily, the market was tied to which artists reached No. 1 on Spotify's U.S. daily chart and recorded $3.3209 million in trading volume.

Davies said Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" rose about 70% in one day and reached No. 1 on Spotify's U.S. chart on June 29. Kalshi enforcement and legal head Robert DeNault replied that only Spotify could verify whether the data came from real listening or manipulation, and Kalshi settled the market minutes after that response.

Davies said open interest in the "Earrings" market rose from $2,000 to more than $70,000 in the days before the disputed streaming data appeared. The next day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the song's cumulative data, and under the adjusted figures the track would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first.

Spotify later asked Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding and said neither platform had a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the branding and changed its wording, and spokesperson Elisabeth Diana said the company is contacting Spotify and investigating the matter. Kalshi has not announced its investigation results, reversed the settlement, or offered compensation.