Kalshi traders price odds Warsh will say 'shock' and 'oil' at Wednesday Fed press conference
2026-07-27 19:01:46
According to CNBC, Kalshi event contracts show more than 50% odds that Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will say “shock” and a 74% chance he will say “oil” at his Wednesday press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. The article said the Fed is widely expected to leave its overnight benchmark rate unchanged, while odds of a rate hike this week have risen to about 38% from 16% last week, according to FedWatch. Kalshi traders also put nearly 75% odds on the Fed keeping rates steady in July, and another contract shows 68% odds of a hike taking place this year. Bank of America said it is “textbook policy” for the central bank to ignore an energy supply shock, while Evercore ISI said it would be unusual to raise rates immediately after the stronger June inflation reading, though it did not rule out a hike in September if needed.
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