According to CNBC, market odds on Kalshi for when maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal fell below 50% on Friday afternoon. The probability that traffic flow will be normal by July 2027 dropped to 47% from nearly 70% over the prior two days after the United States launched a 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while odds that ship traffic resumes normally this year stood at 38% and the chance of regular shipments before April 2027 was 48%.
Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen, who claimed to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, add a new dimension to the reopening timeline and that the reopening is being pushed into next year.
Kalshi odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization fall below 50%
2026-07-24 18:32:14
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