Bitcoin market profitability is improving, but on-chain data still do not confirm the start of a new bull market, and the risk of another decline remains. According to ChainCatcher, CryptoQuant data show Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%, up from a June 30, 2026 low of 46.2% and close to 60%.
However, analysts said the recovery in profitable supply still needs sustained confirmation. Historical cycles suggest a bear market is only considered over when two conditions are met: the 30-day simple moving average of Long-Term Holder SOPR stays above 1 for several weeks, and Bitcoin's Supply in Profit remains steadily above 64%.
Analysts noted that this cycle has already seen one false breakout. From April 28 to June 1, the LTH-SOPR average stayed above 1 for 35 straight days, while Supply in Profit briefly reached 67%, before the market pulled back again. At present, the 30-day SMA for long-term holders has remained below 1 for more than 50 days, which is still viewed as an important risk signal for the strength of the recovery.
Bitcoin Profitability Improves, But Analysts See Risk of Another Pullback
2026-07-24 10:13:52
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