Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Record High as Selling Pressure Eases, Analyst Says

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler said Bitcoin is in a bear-market phase marked by the largest realized losses ever recorded among holders. According to ChainCatcher, the 30-day moving average of realized losses peaked at $1.37 billion on February 20, 2026, above the $1.15 billion cycle high in 2022, while realized losses have since fallen 56.5% to about $597 million.

Adler said loss-driven selling pressure has eased significantly, but demand has not shown a sustained recovery. Realized profits have improved only gradually to $257 million. He said the realized profit 30-day moving average was $257 million as of July 23, down 92.7% from a $3.51 billion peak on December 10, 2024, and 77.7% below the level seen when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $124,710 on October 6, 2025. The metric hit a low of $191 million on June 14, 2026, before rebounding 34.7%.

Adler said profit-taking pressure has dropped sharply, and the amount of coins sold at a profit remains low for the current cycle. However, he said that does not mean sellers are exhausted or that demand has fully recovered. He added that realized profits rising above $400 million to $500 million would better confirm sustained improvement. The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has recovered from 0.26 in June to 0.43, but remains below 1. Adler said the current cycle’s absolute realized losses are larger than in 2022, but market stress is still lower on a relative basis. He also said realized losses exceeded realized profits on 190 of the past 291 days since Bitcoin’s all-time high. If the ratio falls back below 0.26 and Bitcoin breaks below the June 30 cycle low of $58,535, he warned that market pressure could intensify further.