Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said the market currently has two views on when Bitcoin’s bear market will end: one based on the four-year cycle and another that treats Bitcoin as a mature asset driven by macro factors. According to Odaily, Pandl said he favors the macro-driven view and added that if the Federal Reserve stops raising rates and economic growth remains stable, Bitcoin may already have bottomed.
Pandl said the four-year-cycle view holds that halving events remain the main driver of Bitcoin’s price cycle. He said Bitcoin has historically bottomed about one year after a cycle peak and about 2.5 years after a halving, with an average cumulative decline of about 80%. Based on that pattern, he said Bitcoin could fall further and form a bottom in September or October.
He also said another view sees Bitcoin prices as increasingly influenced by economic growth, real interest rates and changes in Federal Reserve policy, similar to other major assets. Pandl said previous Bitcoin bear markets were usually accompanied by slower economic growth or rising real interest rates, and that the current decline has also taken place amid higher expectations for rate hikes and rising real interest rates.
GrayScale Research Head Says Bitcoin May Have Bottomed If Fed Stops Hiking
2026-07-22 16:03:50
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