According to Polymarket page data, the odds of a market betting that U.S. President Donald Trump will pardon SBF before July 31 have fallen to below 1%, with trading volume at about $836,000. According to Foresight News, Polymarket has not opened other prediction markets for different expiration dates on this event.
Under the market rules, the contract will settle to Yes if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or stay of execution from Trump before August 1, 2026, 11:59. It will settle to No otherwise. If Trump is objectively unable to issue a federal pardon within that deadline, the market may settle to No immediately. Settlement will rely mainly on official U.S. government information, with broad coverage from credible media also considered.
Foresight News previously reported that the U.S. Senate passed a resolution opposing any pardon for FTX founder SBF, saying he should not receive a pardon or commutation under any circumstances.
Trump Pardon Bet on Sam Bankman-Fried Falls Below 1%
2026-07-22 12:11:04
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