Wall Street weighs economic impact as U.S.-Iran fighting lifts oil and bond yields

According to CNBC, investors are reassessing the economic impact of the weekend escalation between the U.S. and Iran as the U.S. carried out its 10th straight night of strikes against Iran on Monday and Brent crude briefly topped $90 a barrel. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield also traded above 4.6%, while the S&P 500 fell only marginally on Monday and remained about 2% below its June record high.

Economists said higher energy costs could pressure consumers and the broader economy if oil prices stay elevated. Art Hogan of B. Riley Wealth said earnings estimates for this year may need to be trimmed if crude remains above $85 or $90 into year-end, while Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics said the situation leaves "nothing but downside" for the U.S. and global economies. Zandi estimated the average American household has lost around $1,100 so far from the war, including higher energy costs and military expenses.

The article also said gasoline prices rose to $4 per gallon on Monday for the first time in more than a month, according to AAA, and that Fed funds futures were pricing in more than an 83% chance the Federal Reserve holds rates steady next week, according to CME's FedWatch tool. Ryanair said Monday that weak first-quarter profits reflected delayed bookings because of the Middle East crisis.