PPP prediction market monitoring showed that in Polymarket’s “WTI crude oil price touches target in July” event, the market assigned a 75% probability to WTI crude oil breaking $85 per barrel, a 32% probability to breaking $90, and a 17% probability to breaking $95. According to Odaily, under the market rules, if the high price of any one-minute candlestick for the front-month WTI contract during July trading touches or exceeds the target price, the event is classified as Yes.
Earlier, easing tensions between the United States and Iran and rising expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen reduced concerns over supply disruptions, sending WTI crude oil prices down quickly from conflict highs to around $70 per barrel. Recently, tensions between the United States and Iran have intensified again, transport risks in the Strait of Hormuz have risen, and the market has again priced in Middle East supply disruption risks, pushing oil prices higher.
WTI Oil Price Event on Polymarket Assigns 75% Chance of Exceeding $85 Per Barrel
2026-07-21 10:43:40
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