Prediction market platform Polymarket showed the probability of the Mandeb Strait closing by August 31 rising to 21%, up from a Monday morning low of 11%. According to Odaily, the probability of a closure by September 30 briefly reached 26%.
Yemen's Houthi group, Ansar Allah, announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, saying the move was based on an "eye for an eye" principle and aimed to disrupt Saudi crude export flows. The related route handles more than 4.5 million barrels of crude oil shipments.
The prediction contract is settled using maritime trade flow data published on the International Monetary Fund's PortWatch platform. The contract will resolve to "yes" if the seven-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Mandeb Strait is at or below 10 on any date between market creation and expiration.
Polymarket Odds Rise on Mandeb Strait Closure by August 31
2026-07-20 23:43:52
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