Standard Chartered Keeps China 2026 Growth Forecast At 4.6%

Standard Chartered kept its forecast for China’s economy to grow 4.6 percent year-on-year in 2026, saying policymakers in Beijing are likely to ramp up fiscal support for key infrastructure projects, according to RTHK reported.

Ding Shuang, the bank’s head of Greater China and North Asia economic research, said China’s growth has been uneven, with exports benefiting from the global AI boom while domestic sectors remain weak. He said fiscal spending fell in April and May, and likely in the second quarter as well, but added there may be more room for spending in the second half of the year if the annual budget is fully implemented. Ding also said local governments may be urged to speed up special bond issuance to fund more projects, including infrastructure, and pointed to the “six network” construction projects in China’s 15th Five-Year Plan. He expects spending to accelerate in AI and projects related to people’s livelihoods.

Separately, Tommy Wu, a senior economist at the bank, said Hong Kong’s economy is expected to rise 4.3 percent year-on-year in 2026, higher than the 3.5 percent expansion seen in 2025. He said risks include a possible pause in the current AI super cycle that has supported the city’s trade and logistics sectors. Standard Chartered also cut its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3 percent from 3.4 percent, citing uncertainties including the Iran war, US tariffs and inflationary concerns.