Kalshi traders raise odds U.S. gas tops $3.50 on Nov. 3 as Middle East tensions lift oil
2026-07-09 18:15:27
According to CNBC, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi put a 75% chance that the U.S. national average gas price will be above $3.50 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3, and 39% odds it will be above $3.75, up from 37% and 22% before renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities. The contract is settled using AAA’s national average gas-price data. AAA put the national average at $3.84 on Thursday, up 5 cents from the prior day, after U.S. oil prices rose as high as $75 per barrel on Wednesday from around $68 on Monday, before WTI eased to below $72 on Thursday. Kalshi traders assigned a 43% chance that gas prices exceed $4.60 this year, up from about one-in-three previously; the 2026 high was $4.56 on May 21.
Disclaimer:
1. The information provided does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make independent decisions and bear all risks themselves.
2. The copyright of this content belongs to the original author. The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not represent the stance or position of this website.
