Goldman Sachs: If the core CPI in the United States is at a high level in May, the expected interest rate cut in 2024 will become a once-in-a-lifetime
2024-06-12 08:47:36
Goldman Sachs expects the Fed's June dot plot to show two rate cuts in 2024 (down from three in March), four cuts in 2025 and three cuts in 2026. If May's core CPI is high, the 2024 rate cut expectation will change to one. The end point rate is likely to remain above the neutral rate due to fiscal deficits and strong risk sentiment. In the Summary of Economic Expectations, core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 2.8% in 2024. No major changes are expected to the FOMC statement and Powell's wording.
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