Kalshi traders cut odds Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes by Dec. 1 to 44% after U.S.-Iran ceasefire ends

According to CNBC, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi lowered their expectations for when traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to “normal” after President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “over” following U.S. strikes against the Islamic Republic after attacks on commercial vessels in the strait. Speculators now see a 44% chance that traffic flows return to normal by Dec. 1, and the earliest date they forecast for normal traffic is Jan. 1, 2027, when odds rose to 53%. Kalshi defines normal traffic as a 7-day moving average of transit calls through the strait above 60, verified using IMF PortWatch data; as recently as July 4, Kalshi traders put more than 50% odds on a return to normal by Oct. 1. CNBC said Polymarket traders were more optimistic, assigning a 59% chance that traffic returns to normal by Dec. 31 using the same definition and data. Piper Sandler analyst Jan Stuart wrote in a Wednesday note that traffic is “suddenly very far from normal.”