AI Bubble Risks Could Resemble the Dot-Com Era, Draft U.S. Treasury Report Warns

A draft U.S. Treasury Department report warns that the AI market carries risks and compares key features to the dot-com bubble, U.S. digital news outlet NOTUS reported.

According to Jin10, the draft was prepared by U.S. Treasury experts for U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and multiple federal financial regulatory agencies. The report was completed several weeks ago and is awaiting formal approval before being delivered to its intended audience, and it is expected to be released to the public as well.

The draft says AI companies are more deeply integrated into the U.S. economic system than firms were during the dot-com bubble. It warns that if financial conditions change, productivity targets are not met, or key bottlenecks such as supply chains hinder industry development, the AI sector could pose significant risks to the broader financial system.

The report adds that the AI industry would face elevated risks if financing for infrastructure projects dries up or if long-term growth expectations for the sector fail to materialize, describing these conditions as similar to the period before the dot-com bubble burst.

A U.S. Treasury spokesperson rejected the report’s conclusions, saying the draft had not been reviewed and did not represent the department’s policies or views. The spokesperson said the department’s official position is that artificial intelligence will be a key driver in pushing the United States toward a new “golden age,” and that AI is expected to deliver unprecedented productivity gains, expand economic opportunities, and empower U.S. workers and businesses.