CryptoQuant Says Bitcoin Realized P&L Ratio Hits 43-Month Low, a Level Linked to Past Market Bottoms

Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss (P&L) ratio has dropped to a 43-month low of -0.35, a level that CryptoQuant said reflects extreme market-wide loss conditions and has historically aligned with Bitcoin market bottoms. According to Cointelegraph, the realized P&L ratio measures the net percentage of Bitcoin in profit or loss relative to total supply, and it has not fallen this low since December 2022, shortly after FTX collapsed and pushed Bitcoin below $16,000. CryptoQuant said on Thursday that the indicator has “marked BTC bottoms with extreme precision,” adding that in 2015 and 2019 the ratio also fell below -0.35 before subsequent price rallies.

The data arrives as market sentiment has repeatedly weakened during Bitcoin’s latest 50% drawdown from $126,080, set in October, though sentiment has risen cautiously over the last 10 days. Bitcoin is up more than 7% since falling to a near two-year low of $58,190 on June 25. Analysts attributed that decline to Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, after its top perpetual preferred stock offering, Stretch (STRC), fell from its $100 par value to below $75, fueling concerns about the sustainability of its dividend model. On Thursday, Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said the STRC move helped squeeze out excess leverage and likely brought the market closer to a bottom, adding that he expects a new bull market in the fall.

Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston said Bitcoin is trading only 16% above the realized price, described as the network’s aggregate on-chain cost basis, a level he said has historically coincided with strong forward returns of 41% at six months and 81% at 12 months. Livingston said buying at current levels “feels awful,” arguing that this discomfort is part of why Bitcoin is trading at a discount. He also cautioned against waiting for a definitive bottom, saying it does not announce itself, and recommended buying now rather than paying higher prices near a market top.