Allium Report Finds U.S. Users Lead Political Betting Activity on Polymarket

U.S.-based users are the largest political betting cohort on Polymarket by contracts traded and wallet count, despite the crypto-based prediction market’s efforts to restrict access for U.S. citizens, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Allium. According to Cointelegraph, Allium said in a report published on Thursday that blocking access “did not end US participation,” and instead pushed demand offshore and outside U.S. oversight. The report also stressed that Polymarket’s global platform should not be confused with Polymarket US, a U.S.-regulated platform that launched in December with a narrower set of markets. Allium’s findings add to ongoing scrutiny facing prediction markets, as Polymarket continues to navigate legal and political pressure while attempting to enforce geographic restrictions.

Polymarket cut off U.S. users from its global platform as part of a $1.4 million settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, but Allium’s data suggests those measures have not fully worked. Allium said its estimates are based on the 6% of wallets it could tag with a country, meaning the results are directional. The firm also reported that U.S. users show comparatively higher interest in foreign conflict-related markets than other users, with five of the U.S. cohort’s top 12 markets by notional volume tied to the Iran war, while showing less interest in election-related markets that are permitted on Kalshi and Polymarket US. Cointelegraph reported it contacted Polymarket for comment. Separately, a June study by Rutgers University statistician Harry Crane estimated that 30% of Polymarket trading volume comes from the U.S., and that U.S.-based users sent between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion through Polymarket between May 2025 and April 2026, despite IP and VPN blocking. The Information reported in May that Polymarket has been blocking certain IP addresses associated with VPN services. Allium also outlined that Polymarket is fully blocked in more than 34 countries, including Spain, while Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Poland are listed as “close only,” and restrictions also apply to Ontario in Canada and the regions of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk in Ukraine.