Everbright Futures: Oversupply pressure is gradually emerging, and lithium carbonate prices are moving downwards

On the supply side, domestic production is basically stable, while the salt lake side will gradually enter the seasonal high-yield stage. At the same time, there are still some incremental expectations in the import of lithium salt and lithium resources. On the demand side, the production schedule in June is not optimistic. According to Baichuan data, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials is expected to show a double decrease compared with the previous month. However, the current customer supply ratio is relatively high, the procurement of lithium salt is weak, and the downstream inventory days are tightened. In terms of batteries, although the volume of energy storage batteries is limited, the stage performance is better than that of power batteries. It is reported that the inventory of energy storage batteries is tight. In terms of new energy vehicles, end point retail and wholesale increased month-on-month. According to the data of the Passenger Association, the retail volume of new energy vehicles reached 790,000 in May, an increase of 36% year-on-year and 17% month-on-month. The wholesale volume was 903,000, an increase of 33% year-on-year and an increase of 15% month-on-month. On the whole, the pressure of lithium carbonate oversupply gradually appeared. The price center moved down slightly this week, and broke through 100,000 yuan/ton in the week. The current price may still be in the bottoming stage, and the downward breakthrough still needs to be driven. The market outlook recommends paying attention to the opportunity of short-term bargain selling.