The CME FedWatch tool put the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in July at 68.5% ahead of the nonfarm payrolls release. According to Jin10, the tool showed a 31.5% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike by July.
For September, the tool put the probability of rates remaining unchanged at 35.7%, with a 49.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 15.1% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike.
For October, it showed a 27.8% probability of no change, a 46.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike, a 22.6% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike, and a 3.3% probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike.
Fed Rate Hold Seen At 68.5% For July Ahead Of Jobs Data
2026-07-02 12:24:55
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