Bitcoin (BTC) has printed its first “perfected” TD9 downtrend setup on the monthly chart since mid-2022, a development some analysts say can mark an inflection phase in a broader bear market. According to Cointelegraph, the signal is not considered a standalone buy trigger, but it is being watched as a possible sign that the macro downtrend could be nearing a reversal.
In a Tuesday post on X, analyst Tony Severino said Bitcoin has “perfected” a TD9 buy setup on the monthly timeframe, citing TradingView data. TD9 is derived from the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator, which is designed to flag potential trend changes when nine consecutive candles close higher in an uptrend or lower in a downtrend than the close four candles earlier. Severino noted the last comparable monthly TD9 downtrend signal occurred in July 2022. He added that a completed TD9 setup does not “necessarily mean that the bottom is in,” pointing to the prior cycle when BTC/USD spent another five months forming a bear-market bottom after that signal.
Other commentators echoed the need for caution while highlighting the setup’s potential significance if it remains in place through the monthly close. Tony Carrera, host of the Proof of Pain podcast, wrote in a separate X post that the TD9 setup is “not a buy signal by itself,” but said it is the type of development traders monitor closely if it holds into the close. Carrera added that TD9 signals can be moments when market participants reassess bearish momentum rather than “chasing fear,” framing the setup as a possible turning point in sentiment.
Alongside TD9, traders are also focusing on relative strength index (RSI) behavior across multiple timeframes. Cointelegraph reported that many market participants still expect new macro lows before a definitive bear-market reversal, with downside targets varying and $55,000 cited as a popular level. At the same time, bullish divergences on RSI across several timeframes are being cited as a classic indication that a trend change may be approaching. On Wednesday, trader, analyst, and podcast host Scott Melker told followers on X that he has rarely seen “more confirmed and potential bullish divergence with oversold RSI on more time frames,” adding that divergences building across multiple timeframes offer “good odds” for a bullish comeback.
Bitcoin Forms Monthly TD9 Setup as Analysts Watch for Potential Trend Shift
2026-07-01 19:03:55
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