BofA Global Research Expects Three Fed Rate Hikes in 2026, Polymarket Lists Forecast Event

Polymarket has listed a prediction event on how many times the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2026. According to Odaily, the market is pricing two different macro narratives for 2026: one view expects the U.S. economy to enter a slowdown cycle, with the Fed staying on hold or resuming rate cuts, while another view expects inflation to reaccelerate or long-term inflation expectations to become unanchored, potentially forcing the Fed to restart rate hikes.

Odaily said the relatively high pricing around “three to four rate hikes” reflects a reassessment of inflation persistence and economic resilience over the next year rather than a consensus on a single path.

Bank of America has shifted to a more hawkish rate-path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, and lifting the federal funds target range to 4.25% to 4.50%.

Odaily reported that this forecast is a notable upward revision from BofA’s earlier expectation that rates would remain unchanged during the year. The report cited BofA’s reasoning as continued resilience in the U.S. labor market, a slower-than-expected decline in inflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function could be more hawkish under new Chair of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh.

In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to begin raising rates in September 2026, but projects a total increase of 50 basis points for the year, according to the report.