Serenity said in a post on X that a “photonics theme plus continuous-wave (CW) laser bottlenecks” is among the most important investment directions in AI infrastructure.
According to Odaily, Serenity said the market appears to have overlooked Lumentum’s market capitalization growth since 2024 from about $3 billion to more than $65 billion, attributing the move to Nvidia-driven supply constraints for EML lasers and changes in optical network architecture.
Serenity said the market is now seeing a similar dynamic, with CW lasers, 1.6T optical modules, and co-packaged optics (CPO) architecture becoming focal points for a new round of industry upgrades. Serenity added that as Nvidia continues signing long-term supply agreements, AMD and other cloud service providers are competing for CW laser and optical component supply-chain resources.
Citing Goldman Sachs research, Serenity said the total addressable market for optical communications is expected to grow to $154 billion by 2028, while the CPO market is projected to expand from near zero to $91 billion over the next two and a half years.
Serenity said Applied Optoelectronics, SIVE, and other CW laser-related companies have strategic value, and added that the market may again see investment opportunities tied to tight EML laser supply. Serenity said personal focus areas include SOI, Tower Semiconductor, and SIVE within the CW laser supply chain.
AI TRENDS | Serenity Says Photonics and Continuous-Wave Laser Supply Constraints Are a Key AI Infrastructure Bet
2026-06-23 03:34:02
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