Polymarket’s probability that GPT-5.6 will not be opened to the public before June 28 rose to 78%, up 67% over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, the prediction market’s rules define GPT-5.6 to include a model explicitly named GPT-5.6 as well as any model OpenAI recognizes as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, such as GPT-5.7 or GPT-5.8.
OpenAI Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a significant upgrade over GPT-5.5 in an internal memo dated June 11. The article said analysis cited earlier leaked information related to the Codex backend in May and a relatively fast iteration pace after GPT-5.5 was released on April 23 as factors that strengthened expectations of an imminent GPT-5.6 launch.
Under the market’s rules, task-specific models, cost-optimized versions such as Nano or Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are excluded from the event. New-generation flagship models such as GPT-6 are also excluded.
To qualify, the model must be formally opened for public use, including via an open beta or an open waitlist. Versions limited to closed testing or private access do not meet the settlement criteria.
The event is set to be settled primarily based on OpenAI’s official announcements and information on its official website, with verification supplemented by credible media reports.
AI TRENDS | Polymarket Odds Rise to 78% That GPT-5.6 Will Not Be Public Before June 28
2026-06-21 07:03:41
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