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Lower Oil Prices Ease Fed Hike Expectations After December 2026 Bets, UBS Says

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2026-06-15 15:35:12
UBS Global Wealth Management’s Leslie Falconio said falling oil prices are lowering market expectations after markets had priced nearly a 100% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December 2026.

According to NS3.AI, Falconio attributed the shift to reports of a potential U.S.-Iran deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Falconio said she expects the Federal Open Market Committee to remove its accommodative bias this week. However, she added that she still expects the Fed’s next policy move to be a rate cut, likely in 2027.
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