Polymarket’s implied probability for a “Yes” outcome in a sub-market tied to “June 16” rose sharply to 54.5% from 36% about one hour earlier, a swing of 18.5 percentage points.
According to ChainCatcher, the move occurred within a Polymarket event framed around whether the United States will announce a new Iran agreement or extend a ceasefire.
The report did not provide a specific catalyst for the shift, but noted that breaking news could affect the market’s pricing.
Polymarket Odds for U.S. Iran Deal or Ceasefire Extension by June 16 Jump to 54.5%
2026-06-14 20:53:39
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