CryptoQuant Analyst Axel Adler Links Bitcoin Pullback to Rising Exchange Inflows and Falling Stablecoin Liquidity

Bitcoin has seen large inflows to exchanges while stablecoin liquidity has continued to flow out, worsening both supply and demand conditions, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler. According to Odaily, Adler said this combination has been viewed as a key reason Bitcoin has fallen about 22% from its May peak.

Adler noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day net exchange flow indicator has turned clearly positive at about +114,000 BTC. In early May, the market saw net outflows of roughly 85,000 to 115,000 BTC, which he described as an accumulation phase that has since shifted to a distribution phase. The indicator briefly rose to about +167,000 BTC in early June, suggesting more holders moved BTC to exchanges, increasing potential selling pressure.

At the same time, the 30-day moving average of stablecoin net flows has remained negative at about -$105 million. In early May, the indicator was in the range of about +$40 million to +$90 million, which Adler said reflected stronger buying liquidity. It turned negative after mid-May and widened to roughly -$150 million to -$170 million in early June, indicating stablecoin funds were leaving exchanges.

Adler said the market is currently facing a combination of increased BTC supply and reduced stablecoin demand, with rising selling pressure and insufficient new buying.

He added that a trend reversal would require both indicators to improve: BTC returning to net outflows from exchanges and stablecoins flowing back into exchanges. Until both return to positive territory, Adler said any short-term rebound may be viewed more as a technical repair.