Polymarket Odds Rise to 64% on Israel Closing Airspace by June 30

Polymarket odds for a market on whether Israel will close its airspace by June 30 rose to 64%, up 52% over the past 24 hours. According to Odaily, odds for a separate market on whether Israel will close its airspace by June 15 increased to 59%, also up 52% over the past 24 hours.

The market defines “closing airspace” as a shutdown of all Israeli civilian airspace, or a closure covering most of it, involving flight cancellations or a broad suspension of commercial aviation, including transit, arrivals, and departures. To qualify for a “Yes” outcome, the closure must apply nationwide or to a qualifying large portion of Israeli airspace; limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops, or isolated regional closures do not qualify.

The definition allows for limited exceptions during a large-scale closure, such as permitting some pre-approved flights, without invalidating the closure. Warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other restrictions issued by airlines or countries outside Israel are not considered sufficient on their own for a “Yes” settlement.

Odaily reported that after an April 8 ceasefire involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Iran launched missiles at Israel today for the first time in two months. U.S. President Donald Trump said his advice to Iran was to return to negotiations and reach an agreement after the missiles were launched. Trump also said he would call Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to tell him not to retaliate.