Bitcoin’s Daily RSI Falls to 15.5 After 30% Monthly Drop, Signaling Extreme Oversold Conditions

Bitcoin’s daily relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to about 15.5 after dropping roughly 30% over the past month, marking its lowest level since the March 2020 pandemic-driven market crash and indicating extremely oversold conditions.

According to ChainCatcher, analysis said similar RSI levels appeared during the 2020 pandemic selloff and a February 2026 correction, which were followed by rebounds of about 50% and 30%, respectively.

The report said bulls are still holding the $60,000 support level. If that support remains intact, Bitcoin could see a technical rebound in the coming weeks toward around $70,650, near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA). If Bitcoin breaks below $60,000, it may fall further toward the mid-$50,000 range.

ChainCatcher also reported that Bitcoin short-term holders’ realized profit-and-loss ratio has dropped to a record low, suggesting many recent buyers are exiting at a loss and sentiment is nearing panic.

Crypto analyst Scott Melker said about 5.3 million long-term held bitcoins are currently in unrealized losses, a larger amount than during the FTX collapse and the highest since the March 2020 selloff. Melker added that sentiment tends to move closely with price, noting traders were highly optimistic at May’s peak but turned extremely pessimistic when Bitcoin fell on June 3, and that such conditions “usually” suggest a bottom may be near.