Goldman Sachs: The dollar is unlikely to fall significantly before the U.S. election

Analysts such as Kamakshya Trivedi at Goldman Sachs say the current US economic data has weakened the case for the Federal Reserve to ease policy, which could lead to broader and more damaging dollar swings. However, even if this trend continues, it will be difficult for the dollar to fall sharply before the US election, as investors are unlikely to chase the improvement in growth overseas as they did in 2016. The dollar will return to the stronger side of its recent range in the coming months, while a "breakout" in favour of the dollar is more likely to occur "in the event of catalyzing higher inflation factors such as tariffs or more fiscal expansion".