Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell's speech today focuses on:
1. Interest rate outlook: Reiterated that it is possible to maintain interest rates at high levels for a longer period of time, and does not believe that the next move may be to raise interest rates, making it more likely to maintain policy rates at current levels.
2. Inflation Outlook: Confidence of falling inflation is lower than before, and the lack of further progress on inflation in the US Quarter 1 is noteworthy; inflation is expected to fall month-on-month.
3. Economic Outlook: The US economy is performing very well and has a very strong labor market; GDP is still expected to grow at a rate of 2% or higher, benefiting from the addition of new labor.
4. Market reaction: Since Powell's speech began, gold has basically remained sideways, rising as high as $2356.72; the three major stock indexes in the United States have generally shown a "V" trend.
5. Latest expectations: The market currently expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 40BP this year; the probability of interest rate cuts in June and September is stable at around 50%, which is basically the same as before Powell's speech.
The latest market expectations for the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June and September are stable at around 50%
2024-05-14 15:32:37
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