Analysts at VanEck said that in the month to December 15, Bitcoin's hashrate fell by 4%. This phenomenon could be positive for the bitcoin price in the coming months, as miner capitulation has historically tended to be a bullish contrarian indicator.
Matt Sigel, head of crypto research at VanEck, and Patrick Bush, senior investment analyst, noted in a report released on Monday: "When hashrate compression persists over a longer period of time, the probability of positive returns in the future is higher, and gains are generally greater."
They further pointed out that since 2014, when the hashrate of the Bitcoin network declined in the previous 30 days, its returns over the next 90 days were positive 65% of the time; in contrast, in the case of an increase in hashrate, this proportion was only 54%.
Even if the observation period is lengthened, this law still holds: when the 90-day computing power growth is negative, the probability of bitcoin price rising in the next 180 days is 77%, with an average increase of about 72%, which is significantly better than the 61% probability of positive returns in the case of increasing computing power.
VanEck: Bitcoin miners' recent massive "capitulation" may indicate that the market bottom is approaching
2025-12-23 00:45:23
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