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Forecast markets have become a leading indicator of key economic data

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2025-12-17 02:33:29
According to DLnews, a new report from crypto market maker Keyrock points out that prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi have become leading indicators of key economic data, and traders are incorporating them into their models to gain an advantage.
Since the beginning of 2024, the monthly volume of the prediction market has skyrocketed from $100 million to $13 billion, a 130-fold increase. Although accuracy is disputed, with studies showing Polymarket at 67% and Kalshi at 78%, its ability to reflect the wisdom of crowds has made it increasingly popular among professional traders.
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