Citi: The upcoming non-farm payrolls report may send more conflicting signals

The US non-farm payrolls report to be released next Tuesday will include data for October and November, finally providing policymakers and investors with a more complete picture of the US labour market, ending months of partially blind flying, according to an analysis by the Financial Times. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates to a three-year low after a divisive meeting this week, with several officials disagreeing over whether to prioritise high inflation or a weak jobs market. Economists at Citigroup pointed out that the upcoming jobs report could send more conflicting signals. The bank expects jobs to fall by about 45,000 in October, but to increase by 80,000 in November. The rebound is likely to have more to do with seasonally based data adjustments than "a real improvement in worker demand", Citi economists said. They also forecast the unemployment rate to rise to 4.52 percent from 4.4 percent, compared with 4.4 percent in a Reuters poll of economists. The Fed's own quarterly projections put the median unemployment rate at about 4.5 percent by the end of the year.