Matrixport: Market doubts about future pace have increased, but uncertainty is limited

Matrixport released a weekly report saying, "The latest FOMC cut interest rates as expected, but the forward guidance did not give a clear direction for subsequent policies, and the market's doubts about the future pace have increased. However, from the perspective of interest rate and asset price performance, these uncertainties are still limited in current prices. Powell's slightly wobbly statement, coupled with early signs of labor market weakness, also suggest that the current macro environment is very different from the beginning of the year.
In this context, Bitcoin has fallen below a key long-term trend level for the first time in this bull market, and its trend is quite similar to the market rhythm before the midterm elections in previous years.
Despite the recent talk of "the Federal Reserve restarting its balance sheet expansion", the overall liquidity of cryptocurrencies is still tight, and trading has not picked up significantly. At the same time, the impact of political factors on market sentiment and trading behavior may not be fully factored into prices. Under the interweaving of multiple factors, the market is moving from a single trend to a more complex pattern. At this stage, the importance of position management and risk control has increased significantly. According to our judgment in the October 31, 2025 report, even if the current market is not regarded as a bear market, this round of consolidation is likely to continue. "