Greeks.live: The momentum to restart the bull market is limited, and slow decline is the most mainstream option market view

Greeks.live macro analyst Adam tweeted on social media that at the just-concluded Fed interest rate meeting, no surprise cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the Fed said it would restart buying 40 billion US dollar short-term Treasury bonds (T-bills), dovish attitude can be a good supplement to the liquidity of the financial system, there is no doubt that the market is obviously good.
However, it is too early to restart the bull market in QE, Christmas and the annual delivery are approaching, and in previous years, the liquidity of the crypto market is the worst, the market active level is low, and the power to restart the bull market is very limited.
From the cryptocurrency options data, more than 50% of the options positions are currently piled up at the end of December, the biggest pain point of BTC is 100,000 US dollars integer point, the biggest pain point of ETH is 3200 US dollars, the main term IV is all declining this month, and the market is expected to gradually reduce the volatility this month.
It is worth noting that Skew has experienced a continuous negative bias this month, with Put's price significantly higher than that of Delta's Call. This is mainly due to two reasons. Firstly, the market is stable, and the covered strategy has once again taken over the mainstream. Call's price has been artificially depressed. Secondly, the crypto market has been weak recently, and there are many traders using put options to guard against falling prices.
Overall, the crypto market is relatively weak now, liquidity is relatively poor at the end of the year, market sentiment is depressed, and slow decline is the most mainstream option market view, but at the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the reversal caused by the sudden positive market (although the possibility is relatively low).