JP Morgan: The traditional four-year cycle logic is weakening, and the crypto bull market cycle is not over

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase said that despite the apparent correction in Bitcoin over the past month, the current market has not entered a "crypto winter" and the overall bull market cycle is still not over.
Analysts pointed out that bitcoin fell to $81,000 last month, and its monthly performance was 9% lower than the level at the beginning of the year, marking the first year-on-year decline since May 2023. However, this pullback, while "meaningful", is not enough to represent a structural deterioration. As of Tuesday, bitcoin prices were around $93,000, with a pullback of about 1.5% from the high point. The team stressed that digital assets were temporarily lifted by sentiment after the election, and the subsequent decline in market capitalization of more than 20% and weakening trading volume were normal adjustments. From a structural perspective, the size of stablecoins has increased for 17 consecutive months, showing "obvious resilience". JPMorgan believes that the traditional four-year cycle logic is weakening, and ETF investors are bringing a more stable capital structure to the market, making a deep 80% level pullback less likely. Standard Chartered also said in a research paper that as the Federal Reserve's policy expectations turn loose, "crypto winter may be a thing of the past".