10X Research: Prediction market accuracy and profitability are actually dominated by a few elites

The report, published on social media by 10x Research, notes that while prediction markets appear to be collective intelligence machines, the data show that accuracy and profitability are in fact driven by a small number of informed elites who price probabilities, hedge risk exposure and extract premiums from retail-driven long-term bets.
The majority of users behave like "emotional bettors," exchanging dopamine and narrative for discipline and advantage, while a small group systematically profits from mispriced optimism, order churn trade-offs, and late convergence, the report analysis said. With the prediction market expected to expand significantly in 2026, now is the right time to delve deeper, as the advantages readily available will disappear as liquidity deepens, the agency said. Part three will provide ten enforceable trading frameworks and practical rules.