The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is almost certain, and the market focuses on voting differences and Powell's wording

This week's Federal Reserve meeting is expected to be one of the most contentious in years, with investors focusing on how far policymakers are divided on rate cuts and the signals Powell is sending on the future path. Janus Henderson believes that in the long run, the December meeting will have little impact on the market. There may be some volatility in the short term, but the actions in the first half of 2026 are more important than in December. Wilmington Trust believes that the market has largely digested the Fed's interest rate cut now, and what really matters is the Fed's policy guidance. They are expected to be very cautious, emphasizing that it depends on economic data. Some observers believe that the probability of a Fed rate cut is not as high as the market suggests, and they are more concerned about Powell's statement and the proximity of the policy vote. Nomura economists pointed out that nothing is certain yet, and the market underestimates the risk that the Federal Reserve will choose not to cut interest rates in December. In the event of a rate cut decision, it will be very interesting to see how many dissenting votes there will be. As the four regional Fed presidents rotate, their positions will reveal how much independence they intend to maintain and how much pressure they will exert on the Fed. (Jin Ten)