Next week's macro outlook: The Federal Reserve's highly controversial interest rate cut is approaching, and gold is in great shock mode

With US economic data such as "small non-farmers" and PCE broadly supporting the Fed's expectation of a rate cut next week, Wall Street's panic has come and gone, with investors returning to low-volatility, high-confidence bets on risky assets. The Fed's interest rate decision will be the focus of next week, and the market is widely expected to cut interest rates after the recent weak US employment data. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
Tuesday at 0:00, the New York Fed's one-year inflation forecast for November.
Tuesday at 23:00, JOLTs in the United States are vacant for October.
On Wednesday at 3:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC released a summary of interest rate decisions and economic expectations; at 3:30, Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell held a monetary policy press conference.
Thursday 21:30, the United States to December 6 the week of the initial jobless claims, the United States September trade account;
On Friday at 1:00, the Federal Reserve released data on the financial health of U.S. households in the third quarter of 2025.
On Friday at 21:00, the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Paulson delivered a speech on the economic outlook; at 21:30, the 2026 FOMC voting committee and Cleveland Federal Reserve President Hamak delivered a speech;
On Friday at 23:35, Chicago Federal Reserve President Goolsbee participated in a moderator's conversation before the Chicago Fed's 39th Annual Economic Outlook Symposium.
The Fed's September dot plot suggested two rate cuts in 2026. By contrast, markets are now expecting 63 basis points of easing in 2026, meaning a bet on three rate cuts next year is more likely.