The Federal Reserve's interest rate path in the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain
2025-12-05 08:36:16
Brianna Urucci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, noted in a note that the Fed's monetary policy path for the second half of 2026 remains highly uncertain. "My biggest disagreement with the market is the pricing of expectations for a rate cut in the first half of 2026, and I think current market expectations are too dovish," she said. This depends not only on the evolution of macroeconomic data, but also on the response mechanism of the new Fed leadership. Urucci believes that if inflation picks up again from this quarter and economic growth remains solid - as she expects - then the Fed will not be able to deliver on the market's expected price for further easing next year. She said the Fed may pause the pace of rate cuts after its December meeting. (Jin Ten)
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