Vanguard Group warns that Japan's neutral interest rate is undervalued, recommends underweight Japanese bonds
2025-12-05 02:02:33
Vanguard Group, a trillion-dollar asset management giant, has issued a warning that the market is seriously underestimating the level of Japan's neutral interest rate. Haarlem, head of global interest rates at the group, said the Bank of Japan needs higher interest rates than the market expects to effectively curb inflation, and expects the central bank to continue raising interest rates at its December 19 meeting. The current Japanese policy rate is 0.5%, while the neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5%. Vanguard Group advises investors to underweight Japanese short-term government bonds, believing that underweight Japanese bonds at the short end of the yield curve is the right strategy to avoid risks.
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