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Analysis: More than 25% of bitcoin supply is at a loss, and bitcoin is still highly sensitive to macro shocks

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2025-12-04 16:49:54
Since mid-November, Bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75 quartile line, meaning more than 25 per cent of supply is at a loss. This leaves the market in a fragile balance between the risk of stop-loss/capitulation by high-level buyers and the possibility of sellers running out and forming a staged bottom.
At around $93,000, the bitcoin price will remain highly sensitive to macro shocks until it returns to the 0.75 quartile (~ $95,800) and further recovers to the 0.85 quartile (~ $106,200).
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