Bitcoin is once again at the crossroads of Federal Reserve policy, dollar movements and a far more complex liquidity narrative than most investors imagined, 10x Research said in a post on the X platform. While the probability of a December rate cut has jumped to 84%, history shows that the key is not the rate cut itself, but the policy statement that follows.
Meanwhile, a rarely triggered dollar indicator has just lit up for only the fifth time in Bitcoin's history, and its past results are not reassuring. Many have pointed out that the Treasury Cash Account (TGA) could have unleashed more than $600 billion in liquidity, but the last time a similar situation arose, Bitcoin still fell sharply and reacted much later.
After a number of Federal Reserve officials expressed support for a rate cut on December 10, the Treasury futures market has pushed the implied probability of a rate cut to 84%, while the probability of holding back in January is 65%.
However, as we saw on October 29, the more critical variable is not the rate cut itself, but the accompanying forward guidance. The Fed may choose to cut rates again, but without truly dovish guidance, especially if this will be the third consecutive rate cut, its boost to risky assets will be significantly diminished.
10X Research: The key variable in the market is not the rate cut itself, but the policy stance that follows
2025-11-26 03:43:34
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