China Gold: Gold prices are expected to rise to $4,500 an ounce next year, but cyclical demand has not yet peaked

According to the research report of China International Capital Corporation, unlike the past three years, the rise in precious metals is mainly driven by the cyclical demand for gold, while the increase in silver prices exceeds that of gold. Looking forward to 2026, the bank believes that cyclical demand and structural trends are expected to continue to drive the upward trend of gold and silver prices. Under the benchmark scenario, the bank expects COMEX gold prices to rise to $4,500 per ounce in 2026, and silver prices to rise to $55 per ounce, which still has room for upside from the current rise. The bank believes that the cyclical investment demand for precious metals has not yet peaked, because the US monetary policy may turn loose in the short term, and the risk of long-term inflation expectations de-anchoring may persist. On the other hand, under the new macro order, the unique allocation value of physical gold and the attributes of silver as a strategic resource will become increasingly prominent, providing structural support for global central bank gold purchases, private physical investment, and regional inventory accumulation.