VanEck Releases Mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck

VanEck released mid-November 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck said that long-held whales are still holding, and the price of coins that have been held for more than 5 years continues to rise. The sell-off is mainly concentrated in users who hold medium-term stocks, rather than the earliest users who hold stocks. The futures market is depressed, and both funds and unpositioned squaring contracts are oversold.
The data shows that ETP outflows led to early weakness, with the balance of Bitcoin ETPs decreasing by 49,300 bitcoins since October 10, 2025, accounting for about 2% of total assets under management.
The whale dynamic is characterized by a long-term decline in whale holdings and a short-term increase in whale holdings. Whales holding 10,000 to 100,000 bitcoins have reduced their holdings by 6% and 11% respectively over the past six and 12 months. These reduced bitcoins have been absorbed by "small fish" holding 100 to 1,000 bitcoins. Such smaller investors have increased their holdings by 9% and 23% respectively over the past six and 12 months.
Finally, there are signs of a reset in speculative activity in the futures market. Since perpetual futures never settle, their price aligns with the spot price by charging interest to the counterparty. If the perpetual futures price is higher than the spot price, the long side of the trade must pay interest to the short side proportional to the difference between the spot/perpetual futures price. Due to the asymmetric upside potential of cryptocurrencies, the basis of perpetual futures is almost always positive.