The Fed meeting notes that GDP growth expectations are raised, unemployment will fall, and inflation will be under pressure in the short term

The Federal Reserve's October meeting notes show that the October forecast shows a modest overall strengthening in real GDP growth through 2028 compared to the forecast from the September meeting. This mainly reflects the expected increase in potential output growth and the expected greater support from financial conditions. After 2025, GDP growth is expected to remain above potential until 2028, when financial conditions will shift to a tailwind for spending as the drag from tariff increases diminishes. As a result, the unemployment rate is expected to gradually decline after this year, before stabilizing at a level slightly below the staff estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. Inflation projections are largely similar to those prepared for the September meeting, with tariff increases expected to put upward pressure on inflation in 2025 and 2026. After that, inflation is expected to return to its previous disinflationary trend. Staff continued to cite a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast, citing a cooling labour market, inflation remaining high, heightened uncertainty over government policy changes and their impact on the economy, and limited access to data due to the government shutdown.